After a season unlike any other due to COVID-19 pauses and playing the entire tournament inside a bubble, the 2021 NCAA Men's Final Four is finally less than 24 hours away.
Sharp bettors search out desired numbers when placing their respected wagers instead of placing bets solely on who will win or lose a particular game in a specific sport. In this year's NCAA men's tournament, we find the highest spread ever posted from oddsmakers in a Final Four matchup since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 – displaying the No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga Bulldogs as an overwhelming 14.5-point favorite over the No. 11 seed UCLA Bruins. For those bettors looking to avoid placing an against the spread wager (ATS), sportsbooks are demanding you lay $1,430 to find a winning return of a mere $100 on all moneyline bets.
The Bulldogs are the only undefeated team this season at 30–0 and have looked unstoppable, outscoring opponents by a combined 96 points in four tournament victories. To get to the championship game, the Bulldogs face a UCLA club that is the biggest surprise of March Madness. The success of the Pac-12 conference, which sent four schools (Oregon State, UCLA, USC, and Oregon) to the Sweet 16, have posted an incredible 14–3 (82%) against the spread (ATS) mark—with the Bruins now the only team left representing the conference in the Final Four.
On the other side of the bracket, NCAA bettors will get treated to No. 1 Baylor taking on No. 2 Houston. The Bears, who will be making their first Final Four appearance since 1950, will face a Cougars club that has won 11 consecutive games.
Upon a deeper dive, we discover that we need to go back to 2013 to find the last time oddsmakers posted a double-digit point spread in a Final Four game. In that contest, sports bettors were looking at the Louisville Cardinals as 10-point favorites over Wichita State. To find another double-digit favorite in the Final Four, we need to go all the way to 1999 when the Duke Blue Devils were an 11.5-point favorite over Michigan State. Research reveals that in both games, the favorites won and advanced to the Championship game. However, in both contests, the underdogs easily covered the spread as Louisville won four points (72-68), with Duke previously only prevailing by six points (68-62).
The question for sports bettors then becomes, can UCLA continue that trend of underdogs covering these exorbitant spreads against a Gonzaga team many consider among the greatest teams in NCAA history?